Feb 8, 2010
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Will the real traitor
please stand up?

“For the majority leader of the United States Senate, in the time of war, with soldiers dying on the ground, announcing that we have lost the war, is very close to treasonous. I looked it up while we were driving over here, what the definition of 'treason' is. It's the betrayal of trust.”
  -- Tom DeLay, 2007

“I cannot support a failed foreign policy....President Clinton has never explained to the American people why he was involving the US military in a civil war in a sovereign nation, other than to say it is for humanitarian reasons, a new military-foreign policy precedent. Was it worth it to stay in Vietnam to save face? What good has been accomplished so far? Absolutely nothing.”
  -- then-House Majority Whip Tom Delay, 1999, a month into the US mission in Kosovo

“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
July 26, 1920, H.L. Mencken

“To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
-- Theodore Roosevelt (1918)

Bush Advisor Karl Rove, p. 78 of the February 19 & 26, 2001 issue of the New Yorker:
[ on education plan in general ] ... “The tax cuts will make the economy grow. As people do better, they start voting like Republicans -- unless they have too much education and vote Democratic, which proves there can be too much of a good thing.”

History Repeats

“Of course the people don't want war. But after all, it's the leaders of the country who determine the policy, and it's always a simple matter to drag the people along whether it's a democracy, a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to greater danger.”
   -- Herman Goering at the Nuremberg trials

“I just don’t think we should go hellfire damnation around the globe freeing people, unless it is directly related to our own national security.”
   -- Gerald R. Ford

Archive of all City Council and School Committee election results, 1941-2005 (PDF)
(amended March 19, 2006)

Feb 8, 2010 City Council Agenda Highlights

Cambridge is still without a mayor, i.e. Chair of the City Council, and the consequences are minimal. [Scorecard below or here.] That said, it would be nice if the boys and girls would settle their grudges and pick someone who can appoint members and Chairs of the Council subcommittees and be the 7th voting member of the School Committee. Someone suggested that the councillors should begin getting their salaries only after this matter has been settled. That would bring this impasse to a rapid end. It is unlikely that there will be a mayoral vote tonight since Councillor Toomey is expected to be absent, and next Monday is a holiday, so the next opportunity would be Feb 22 unless a Special Meeting is called for this purpose. There was a Late Order introduced last week by Councillor Cheung calling for such a Special Meeting on Feb 10 (and possibly Feb 17 if necessary), but Councillor Davis exercised her charter right to delay discussion of this proposal until tonight (Charter Right #3).

The Feb 1 meeting also featured another Late Order from Councillor Cheung calling for the members of the City Council to select their Chair using Instant Runoff Voting. Councillor Decker exercised her charter right to end debate on that proposal, though it will come up again tonight (Charter Right #1). Though it's relatively clear that this idea is inconsistent with the Charter and City Council rules, a more significant problem is that in a small election (only 9 people voting), there could be the unintended consequences of strategic voting in this or any similar alternative. For example, it is very possible that voting councillors could "bury" their 2nd choices in order to increase the possibility that their 1st choice would prevail. This might result in the most favored candidates becoming unelectable with 3rd or 4th preference candidates gaining an advantage. Instant Runoff Voting can work well in a large population, but a top-two runoff may be preferred in this kind of election. In any case, it's a moot point.

Councillor Cheung (with the support of Councillor Decker) also introduced a Late Order calling for the Council subcommittees and Chairs from last term to be temporarily reappointed with Councillor Cheung assuming positions then held by former Councillor Ward until a new mayor is chosen. One councillor suggested that this might only further delay the vote (possible), and Mr. Reeves objected on procedural grounds. However, with the current configuration of councillors, this might be a very good idea. Councillor Kelley exercised his charter right to delay the proposal until tonight (Charter Right #2).

I suspect that none of these proposals will go anywhere, but you have to like newly-elected Councillor Cheung's willingness to dive right in with creative proposals for getting things moving. We need more councillors like him.

Other than the mayoral soap opera, there are a few other items of note on this week's agenda:

Councillor Decker introduced 32 identical resolutions for each student graduating from the YouthBuild Just-A-Start Program. This should have been a single resolution - ample evidence for why councillors should never be judged simply by the number of resolutions they (or their political patronage assistants) introduce.

Councillor Maher's Order #1 inquires about the circumstances leading to the recent exit of Pearl Art from Central Square. It's worth noting that there are now many vacant storefronts in Central Square. It would seem that commercial property owners are somewhat unaware of the current economy and are determined to accept high rent or no rent for their properties. Go figure.

Councillor Seidel's Order #7 asks for publication on the City website of funds received by the City of Cambridge from the federal American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Far be it from this writer to comment on national politics, but "stimulus" money should only be expended on projects that would soon have been undertaken anyway, i.e. an advance payment rather than just throwing money around on anything in the hope that jobs and economic activity will follow. This should be only about spending sooner and not about spending significantly more.

That's enough for now. It will be interesting to see how Council business proceeds over the next two months with two members (Decker, Simmons) competing along with five others for the State Senate seat vacated by Anthony Galluccio. When City Council "research assistants" were first introduced several years ago, it was in the context of several councillors planning to seek other elected offices and wanting taxpayer-funded stand-ins to handle their business while out on the campaign trail. This looks to be more of the same this year. -- Robert Winters

Feb 1, 2010 City Council Agenda Highlights (updated)

Now that the City Council is entering its second month without choosing its Chair or forming subcommittees, it should surprise no one that the agenda is light. The fact that at least one councillor and possibly as many as three are exploring or actually running for the vacant State Senate seat also means that not a hell of a lot of attention is being paid to City Council matters. For those keeping score, here's the record on the mayoral votes so far:

As is often the case, those who argue about who should get to wear the golden tiara of Mayor mention the role of Chair and 7th voting member of the Cambridge School Committee. Here's a suggestion that requires no charter change and might just earn the undying respect of the other 6 members of the School Committee: Once elected, the Mayor voluntarily takes a seat as an ordinary member of the School Committee and allows the School Committee through its elected Vice-Chair to lead the School Committee and chair all of the meetings unless unusual circumstances dictate otherwise. This would be a nice tradition that could start now. It would also permit the Mayor to exercise greater leadership in the more appropriate setting of the City Council.

City Manager's Agenda #4. Transmitting communication from Robert W. Healy, City Manager, relative to the appointment of Marlissa Brigget as the Executive Director of the Cambridge Human Rights Commission and Executive Secretary of the Police Review & Advisory Board effective Jan 19, 2010.

It's good to see that this appointment has been made and that there will continue to be a joint responsibility of this person to manage both of these City Boards. A City Council Order encouraging the City Manager to further consolidate City Boards, departments, and divisions with overlapping responsibilities would be welcome, but don't anyone hold your breath waiting for that kind of leadership.

There are a few other minor items on the agenda, but nothing to write home about. -- Robert Winters

February Programs at Fresh Pond Reservation
These events are FREE and open to the public. Children are welcome in the company of an adult.

Please register for each event that you plan to attend. You will receive information on parking after you register. E-mail Elizabeth Wylde at friendsoffreshpond@yahoo.com or call (617) 349-6489 and leave your name and phone number.

Offered by Friends of Fresh Pond Reservation

Keep up to date on events at the Pond: visit the Friends group website at http://friendsoffreshpond.org 

Fond of the Pond - Mark Feeney, Boston Globe (Jan 11, 2010)

Jan 11, 2010 City Council Agenda Highlights

This is the first regular meeting of the 2010-11 City Council term, and the new Council begins with a relatively clean slate as the much of the detritus of Councils past has been allowed to expire. The first order of (unfinished) business is the election of a mayor. The first attempt on January 4 resulted in a highly fractured vote, but it is expected that votes will shift on the second ballot and any subsequent ballots. Multiple factors are at play including (a) the news from the grapevine that Marjorie Decker will be having a State Senate campaign event in Saugus on January 31 - an apparent sign that she intends to pursue the Galluccio seat; (b) the commitments for the first mayoral ballot have now been expended; (c) feedback from political supporters in the wake of the January 4 ballot may cause a councillor or two to think twice about the political fallout; and (d) nobody really wants this to go on very long with the resultant delay in Council business caused by the lack of any appointments to City Council subcommittees by the new mayor. Most of the speculation centers on either Henrietta Davis or David Maher being best positioned to pick up the necessary 5th vote, but the continued meetings and wheeling and dealing and political hardball yields no certainty in the outcome.

As far as the rest of the meeting agenda goes, here are a few items of interest:

RECONSIDERATION. Councillor Kelley filed Reconsideration on the vote taken on Dec 21, 2009 confirming the appointments transmitted on a communication from Robert W. Healy, City Manager, relative to the appointment of the following persons as Commissioners of the Cambridge Housing Authority: Anthony Pini (term expires 4/1/2014) and Gerald Clark (term expires 1/11/2015) [Dec 21, 2009 motion of Councillor Kelley to Table failed 4-5-0. Appointments confirmed 8-1-0. Councillor Kelley filed Reconsideration.]

Though I don't pretend to understand all the intense passion expressed about these appointments and the behind-the-scenes push to change the vote late in the December 21 meeting to approve these appointments, it is worth noting that this is precisely the reason why state law and Robert's Rules of Order allow for reconsideration of votes. Many outspoken public housing advocates had gone home on December 21 after this matter had been tabled and were shocked to learn that this changed late in the meeting. Expect some spirited public comment on this matter regardless how the final vote goes.

Order # 1. That the City Manager is requested to confer with the appropriate City department heads and personnel in order to determine alternatives to laying off the five employees from the Lead Safe Cambridge program.   Councillor Simmons

This Order is noteworthy primarily in that it seems to direct the City Manager what to do in a personnel matter. It would be one thing if the Order focused on the importance of preserving the Lead-Safe program, but this Order instead is all about retaining five employees. Presumably, all of these employees have the opportunity to respond to any internal or public postings for City jobs. The City Council Order seems to say that the Manager should retain these employees in their current jobs regardless of need or budgetary concerns. Does this not seem like micromanagement from a city councillor?

Order #4. City Council concerns regarding House Bill 4410 which would give new powers to state and local school officials to turn around under-performing schools and increase the number of charter schools.   Councillor Davis and Councillor Maher

The sponsors of the Order seem to agree with the Legislature on (1) reducing the financial impact of charter schools on regular public schools; (2) better processes for evaluating and approving charter schools; and (3) amendments that would help turn around underperforming schools. However, the sponsors express opposition to amendments that would (1) weaken proposed management powers or enhance the ability of unions to block action by school districts; (b) require municipalities and school districts to sell or lease surplus school facilities to charter schools; (3) new spending mandates on cities, towns and school districts; and (4) lifting the cap on charter schools. Councillor and State Representative Toomey may have something to say in response to this Order. H4410 passed by a 119-35 vote. The Senate approved a different version and a 6-member House-Senate conference committee is now working on a compromise of the two versions.

According to my reading of the City Council materials, the only holdover items from the previous Council are these:

(1) Council Kelley's Reconsideration of the Cambridge Housing Authority appointments.

(2) The Fanning Petition to rezone an area in East Cambridge.

(3) A December Order regarding increasing the amount of public information about elections while the municipal election is in progress.

(4) A December Order and a committee report regarding the City Council's policy on naming street corners.

(5) A request to the City Manager for information regarding what barriers would prevent residents from raising chickens and what could be done to remove these barriers.

Also in the pipeline - a scattered set of recommendations from December's "Climate Congress" which will have a follow-up City Hall meeting on January 23. Unlike an actual legislative process where most proposals require majority support, the current draft of these citizen recommendations reads like a laundry list of every imaginable idea in environmental regulation and social engineering. Many of the ideas presented will be dead on arrival such as the proposal to increase the cost of a residential parking sticker every year for the next 20 years - even though most participants seemed to agree that the local impact of automobiles on climate was far less than things like poorly insulated and inefficient commercial, residential, and institutional buildings. A strong theme at this gathering was the need to better quantify the primary contributors to climate change before setting priorities or determining policies and initiatives. Nonetheless, the draft recommendations are dominated by proposals made without any such prioritization. It's worth looking at for a few good ideas, but this document leaves a lot to be desired as either a legislative agenda or a blueprint for change. - Robert Winters

Jan 6 - Follow The Money - What percentage of the 2009 campaign contributions for each of the elected city councillors came from people with a Cambridge address? Here are the percentages:

Information based on data from the Massachusetts Office of Campaign and Political Finance (OCPF)
More detail at http://cambridgecivic.com/?p=345. Data files (zipped Excel) at 2009contributions.zip.

Addendum: The OCPF data reveals some other interesting things such as which candidates received campaign donations in excess of the individual annual limit of $500 (same $500 limit for political action committees). Here are the apparent excesses:

Perhaps a refund or two may be in order, or maybe there's some explanation for some of these. Here's the data (zipped Excel file) for anyone who wants to go fishing: 2009contributions.zip. Corrections, explanations, or interesting discoveries are enthusiastically welcome. There may still be a few more 2009 donations to be recorded, but it's all courtesy of the OCPF. -- Robert Winters

Jan 3 - On the Eve of the City Council Inauguration and Mayoral Vote

On Monday, January 4, 2010 at 10:00am the newly elected Cambridge City Council will be sworn in at City Hall. Once City Clerk Margaret Drury takes care of all the swearing-in, the new Council will take up their first order of business - the election of a Mayor. If a majority is able to elect a Mayor, they will then proceed to the election of the Vice-Chair of the City Council (commonly known as Vice-Mayor).

The elected councillors have been meeting in pairs and threesomes and foursomes ever since the election results were known in November as the various mayoral contenders have been trying to convince and bargain their way into the Mayor's Office. Much of the convincing is based on things like philosophy, committee appointments, and who might be well-suited to chair the School Committee. On the other hand, there is a history of some not-so-above-board deal-making that also takes place in this process, e.g. the introduction of personal aides for all city councillors that grew out of the January 2006 deal-making.

As most voting Cantabrigians know, the Mayor of Cambridge is not popularly elected. It's really more like the election of a City Council President as in Boston and many other places. There is a certain logic in allowing an elected body to choose its own Chair, especially in a city governed by the Plan E Charter in which the City Council chooses a city manager as chief executive officer of the City. However, there is also a point of view that city councillors should act as representatives of the electorate and that they have some duty to act on behalf of those who elected them. If this is the case, what criteria should guide the election?

Criterion #1 - Showing Up for Work

Based on who has attended City Council committee meetings during the 2008-2009 term, the nod might go to Sam Seidel or Henrietta Davis (see chart below), though a strong case could be made for David Maher who chaired more meetings than any of his colleagues. Of course, outgoing Mayor Denise Simmons would also have to be included among the contenders for all the City Council and School Committee meetings she chaired during her term.

Criterion #2 - Let the People Decide - Instant Runoff

We could use the ballot data from the November election to see who would be elected if a series of runoffs were to be held using the ballots that elected the city councillors. Based of this, the nod would go to Henrietta Davis (with Denise Simmons as the last eliminated and Tim Toomey before her). However, the notion that voter preferences should factor into the mayoral election exposes a paradox. After the 2005 and 2007 elections, the person elected Mayor was the least preferred by the voters among the nine elected and would have been the first eliminated in an Instant Runoff election. Specifically, in 2005 and 2007 the Instant Runoff winner was Henrietta Davis, but Kenneth E. Reeves was chosen in January 2006 and Denise Simmons in January 2008 as Mayor. The likely reason for this reversal of fortune is that Council colleagues often do not wish to strengthen the hand of a popular colleague. If the pattern of 2005 and 2007 is repeated this year, we'll be greeting Mayor Leland Cheung on Monday morning.

I made a chart of these Instant Runoff Simulations for the 2009, 2007, 2005, 2003, 2001, 1999, 1997, and 1991 elections (the ones for which ballot data is available). It's worth noting that the last times the Instant Runoff winners were actually elected Mayor were in 1997 (Frank Duehay) and 1999 (Anthony Galluccio).

Criterion #3 - Let the People Decide - Look at the Rankings

There are quite a few ways of measuring popularity based on ballot rankings. One rather simplistic approach is to look only at the #1 rankings - a criterion often promoted in years past. The "#1 vote-getter" would make the case that this is what the people demand. Of course, this ignores the phenomenon of vote-splitting - the very thing that preferential ballots are designed to mitigate. Perhaps a more fair way to measure popularity based on ballot rankings would be to count the number of ballots on which each candidate appears with a high ranking, e.g. somewhere in the top 3 or top 5 or top 9 rankings. Henrietta Davis wins according to this criteria in all scenarios except the "Top 3" criterion in which she is eclipsed by 1 vote by Denise Simmons, 5015 to 5014. It's worth noting that according to these criteria, some elected councillors fare worse than some candidates who were not even elected. For example, using a "Top 3" criterion, Marjorie Decker and Leland Cheung are eclipsed by Eddie Sullivan and Larry Ward. In all criteria using 5 or more rankings, Marjorie Decker actually finishes 12th, though one can certainly argue that this may be a by-product of being a write-in candidate.

Criterion #4 - School Committee Experience

There are four councillors who have been previously elected to the Cambridge School Committee - Tim Toomey, Henrietta Davis, David Maher, and Denise Simmons. Of course, all those who have previously served as Mayor have also served in this capacity.

Criterion #5 - The Rotation Principle

There is something of a tradition of passing the torch among City Council colleagues so that various mayoral styles and priorities can be sampled. Based on this, the nod would go to Tim Toomey and Henrietta Davis for having waited their turn the longest. Needless to say, this criterion is most often quoted in order to dissuade councillors from reelecting a Mayor to a 2nd consecutive term. The Rotation Principle generally goes hand-in-hand with the Exclusion Principle, i.e. the fact that there are some elected councillors whose behavior has been such that they couldn't get majority support under virtually any circumstance. In short, some measure of acceptability is a prerequisite for consideration under the Rotation Principle. Though there is a temptation to name the Excluded here, I shall resist. In any case, every councillor's vote weighs as much as any other.

We'll see what Monday brings. Perhaps a deck of cards or some dice will prove handy in determining the outcome. - Robert Winters

Total Orders and Resolutions for 2008-2009: 2810 

There are up to 7 committee reports yet
to be filed for the 2008-2009 term

In the original count, Patty Nolan edged out Joe Grassi by 18 votes. In the Recount, the election quota remained the same and the final margin between these two candidates increased to 19 votes. The only other notable change was that Fred Fantini surpassed Nancy Tauber in #1 votes to "top the ticket". The winners did not change.

Nov 27,28 - Age and party voting statistics for the recent Cambridge municipal election:

Citywide, there were 59,866 registered voters and 16,073 City Council ballots cast for an overall turnout of 26.6%. It should be noted that the registered voters include many "inactive" voters who may no longer live in Cambridge but who remain on the registered voter list due to requirements of the Motor-Voter Law. A more accurate value for the actual turnout may be about 34.4%. Comments?

Nov 13 - The Final, Official Count of the Cambridge Municipal Election (including any provisional ballots and overseas absentee ballots) took place on Friday, Nov 13, 2009 at the offices of the Cambridge Election Commission (51 Inman St., 1st Floor Conference Room). Here are the Final Results:

Elected to the City Council - Henrietta Davis, Denise Simmons, Tim Toomey, Craig Kelley, David Maher, Ken Reeves, Sam Seidel, Marjorie Decker, and Leland Cheung (in order of election).

Elected to the School Committee - Nancy Tauber, Richard Harding, Marc McGovern, Fred Fantini, Alice Turkel, and Patty Nolan (in order of election).
[Nov 18 update - Joseph Grassi has filed a petition for a recount. He was edged out by Patty Nolan by 18 votes.]
Note: The order of election shown has been corrected to show that Nancy Tauber was the first candidate to reach the election quota.

Excel spreadsheets of Final Election Counts (Nov 13) - now with Ward, Precinct Info (Nov 17)
now with #2 vote distributions for City Council (Nov 18)
now with #2 vote distributions for School Committee (Nov 24)

Printable PDF of Final Election Counts (Nov 13) - now with Ward, Precinct Info (Nov 17)
now with #2 vote distributions for City Council (Nov 18)
now with #2 vote distributions for School Committee (Nov 24)

Discussion and comments

Nov 18 - The Replacements (should a City Council or School Committee vacancy occur over the next two years)

Nov 23 - Graphic Representations of the Election Counts
(by Jeff O'Neill using OpenSTV:
City Council    School Committee

Nov 9 - There may be a handful of additional ballots to be included this Friday after 5:00pm in the Final Official Count for the Cambridge Municipal Election, but this will almost certainly not affect the outcome of the election. While we all stand breathlessly waiting for the results to be finalized, perhaps this is a time to make a few observations on this year's election:

1) We were blessed this year with some very good new candidates, most notably Tom Stohlman, Minka vanBeuzekom, Leland Cheung, and Neal Leavitt for City Council and Alan Steinert for School Committee, to name a few. Let's hope they all assume greater roles in civic affairs in Cambridge and perhaps consider being candidates again in the future.

2) While many were quick to dismiss Marjorie Decker's chances as a write-in candidate, nearly all the incumbents and several of the challengers knew better as indicated by their concerns expressed at several Election Commission meetings prior to the election. Indeed, an often expressed sentiment was that she might actually have an advantage by being distinguished by the notoriety of the write-in campaign and by the ability to appeal to voters to give their #1 vote this time due to this special situation. She also had a great campaign manager in Jeni Wheeler and plenty of cash.

3) Newly elected Leland Cheung was not, in fact, carried into office by waves of MIT and Harvard students. Though he did well among the relatively few students who voted, Leland's votes were spread uniformly across the city.

4) Though some activists in East Cambridge did their best to portray Tim Toomey in the worst possible light, he still managed to get 52.5% of all #1 votes in Ward 1. East Cambridge challenger Charlie Marquardt, in contrast, received 3.6% of the #1 votes in Ward 1.

5) Though it took longer than usual to review all the additional auxiliary ballots caused by the write-in campaign, the general consensus is that the process was thorough and accurate and relatively quick (once they got the hang of it).

6) The School Committee election was unusual in that 8 of the 9 candidates did quite well in #1 vote totals with 7 of them within a few hundred votes of each other. None of them reached the election quota in the 1st Count. In the deciding 5th Count, only 19 votes separated Patty Nolan and Joe Grassi. However, unlike the 2001 election when there was a near 3-way tie for the last 2 seats and a lengthy recount, the ballot scanners did not accept ballots with overvotes (or write-ins or blanks) and consequently almost all potentially challengeable ballots have already been reviewed during the two days after Election Day. It is therefore extremely unlikely that a recount would change the results, especially since there were no over-quota candidates and therefore no variability caused by which surplus ballots would be distributed.

Stay tuned. Once the Final Official results are in, much more analysis will follow.

Nov 5 - Unofficial Final Election Results (Thursday): Elected to the City Council - Henrietta Davis, Denise Simmons, Tim Toomey, Craig Kelley, David Maher, Ken Reeves, Sam Seidel, Marjorie Decker, and Leland Cheung (in order of election).

Elected to the School Committee - Richard Harding, Nancy Tauber, Marc McGovern, Fred Fantini, Alice Turkel, and Patty Nolan (in order of election).

Excel spreadsheets of Unofficial Final Election Counts (including auxiliary ballots)

Printable PDF of Unofficial Final Election Counts

Nov 4 - Wednesday End-of-Day Election Update: The Election Commission has now processed about half of all the combined City Council and School Committee auxiliary ballots (4607 is the combined number). They will start up again on Thursday at 9:00am and hope to complete the task by late afternoon or early evening (though nothing is guaranteed).

City Council Campaign Finance Report Summaries (sortable, through Oct 31) - Just in case you're interested in how much some of the City Council candidates raised and spent in their campaigns this year. (Click on the column headings to sort by that column.) The numbers will likely rise still, but so far Marjorie Decker raised $60,614 and spent $57,190 - outpacing all other candidates by a wide margin in both categories. In contrast, Leland Cheung may win a seat and so far has spent a grand total of $4,567.

Nov 4 - Wednesday Mid-day Election Update: The processing of the auxiliary ballots for the Cambridge City Council and School Committee elections continues. One important new piece of information is that there were several precincts at which the scanners were not accepting ballots for a portion of the day on Tuesday and these ballots are included among the auxiliary ballots. This is significant because most of these ballots are ordinary ballots in the sense that they don't necessarily contain any write-in votes. This may help to explain why there were 3,590 auxiliary ballots for City Council when a reasonable expectation would be closer to 2,000 or less. It also helps to explain why there were 1017 auxiliary ballots for School Committee where there was no organized write-in campaign.

The latest estimate for Marjorie Decker is that she has approximately 1285 #1 votes and the election quota will likely be around 1600. This also means that most of the remaining 2305 ballots will be distributed according to #1 votes to other candidates. Most observers are still predicting that the Decker totals will likely be sufficient for her to be elected, but we won't know for sure until all the ballots are scanned and the tabulation software does all the transfers and determines the winners. The Election Commission is processing the precincts with the most auxiliary ballots first. After that, things should move more quickly and hopefully we'll have final unofficial results tonight.

The School Committee race is also potentially greatly affected by the fact that several precincts did not process many ordinary ballots on Tuesday. In particular, if these precincts lean more toward either Patty Nolan or Joe Grassi, that may make the difference between which of them picks up the last seat on the School Committee. Though not absolutely certain, this is the only thing that has a reasonable chance of changing from yesterday's preliminary results which appeared to elect Nancy Tauber, Richard Harding, Marc McGovern, Fred Fantini, Alice Turkel, and Patty Nolan.

One curious development in the School Committee race is that there appear to be over 50 ballots on which Marjorie Decker stickers have been affixed. Though this won't have any measurable effect on the election outcome, it does mean that she will have enough School Committee votes to actually have a round just to transfer her votes to continuing candidates.

Check back later for additional updates.

Note: There were 28,268 Candidate Pages read from Nov 1 to Nov 3.
Thank you, Cambridge voters, for taking interest in your local government.
The voter turnout actually went UP from 13,721 in 2007 to approximately 16,061.

The election results are very preliminary for the City Council race. There were 12,471 valid City Council ballots processed on Election Day, but there are an additional 3,590 "auxiliary ballots" still to be processed. These include ballots with write-in votes, blank ballots, and ballots which for some other reason could not be scanned at the polls. Observers at The Count on Election Night noted that most of these auxiliary ballots were relatively complete with many preferences expressed on most of them. Write-in candidate Marjorie Decker will likely have #1 votes on at least a third of these auxiliary ballots, but possibly significantly more. Though the election quota based only on the ballots scanned on Tuesday is 1248, this is expected to go up to about 1600 when all ballots are included.

The very preliminary results list nine "winning" candidates, but it is likely that only the top 3 to 6 of these have a lock on election. The top finishers in terms of #1 votes were Tim Toomey (1587), Henrietta Davis (1446), and Denise Simmons (1441). The #1 vote totals for the next tier of probable winners are David Maher (1106), Craig Kelley (1080), and Ken Reeves (1010), but all of these numbers will change when the other 3590 ballots are examined. The #1 vote totals of the other candidates listed as "winners" in this relatively meaningless preliminary tally are Eddie Sullivan (791), Sam Seidel (755), and Leland Cheung (673), but it would be foolish to consider them as winners until all the ballots are included.

The School Committee preliminary results are far more likely to be close to the final results, but there are an additional 1017 auxiliary ballots to be considered. The apparent victors are (in order of election) Nancy Tauber, Richard Harding, Marc McGovern, Fred Fantini, Alice Turkel, and Patty Nolan.  However, in the deciding Round after Alan Steinert is defeated and his ballots transferred to continuing candidates, there is a gap of only 19 votes separating Patty Nolan and Joe Grassi. In this preliminary result, Grassi is defeated and his transferred ballots elect, in sequence, Fred Fantini, Alice Turkel, and Patty Nolan to complete the election. This difference of only 19 votes could change upon examination of the 1017 auxiliary ballots, so the issue of whether Patty Nolan or Joe Grassi picks up the last School Committee seat is not yet settled.

Excel spreadsheets of Preliminary Counts (not including auxiliary ballots)

Sept 28, Oct 4, Oct 26 - The Cost of a City Council Campaign

There's a little less than a month to go in the 2009 City Council campaign and, as you might expect, the really big costs are yet to come (printing, mailing). Two candidates have already taken in over $40,000 in receipts for the year, and three candidates have already spent in excess of $20,000 (though in one case the expenses overlap with that candidate's State Rep. race).

A sortable table at http://cambridgecivic.com/?p=345 gives an accounting of the opening balance, total receipts, total expenditures, and current campaign balance of all City Council candidates covering the period from January 1 through October 15 of this year. The table will be updated frequently. Comments on this topic are encouraged. Additional details from the individual reports may be found at http://rwinters.com/elections/campaignfinance2009.pdf. If you discover any errors in the summary table or the detailed report, please let me know. Anyone can search the campaign finance reports at the OCPF website.

School Committee candidates are required to file their campaign finance reports of activity from January 1 through October 16 no later than October 26. The figures will be posted here when they become available. -- RW

Sept 12, 2009 (reposted from last year) - How has voter turnout changed in the Cambridge municipal elections over the last 50 years? Here are the numbers:

Notes:

Of the 58666 registered voters in 1999, 42500 were listed as "active", so if you were to use that as a better measure of actual potential voters, you'd have a percentage of 45% rather than the 33% caused by the provisions of the Motor-Voter Law.

Of the 56973 registered voters in 2001, 43911 were listed as "active", so if you were to use that as a better measure of actual potential voters, you'd have a percentage of 40% rather than the 31% caused by the provisions of the Motor-Voter Law.

Of the 55831 registered voters in 2003, 41069 were listed as "active", so if you were to use that as a better measure of actual potential voters, you'd have a percentage of 51% rather than the 38% caused by the provisions of the Motor-Voter Law.

Of the 58666 registered voters in 2005, 41271 were listed as "active", so if you were to use that as a better measure of actual potential voters, you'd have a percentage of 39% rather than the 29% caused by the provisions of the Motor-Voter Law.

Of the 56339 registered voters in 2007, 39462 were listed as "active", so if you were to use that as a better measure of actual potential voters, you'd have a percentage of 35% rather than the 24% caused by the provisions of the Motor-Voter Law.

Selected City of Cambridge References:

Plan E Charter (Cambridge's city charter)       Acts of 1921, Chapter 239 as amended (establishment of Cambridge Election Commission)

Mass. General Laws Chapter 54A (governing Cambridge's PR elections)

Jorkin: “Come, come, Mr. Fezziwig, we’re good friends besides good men of business. We’re men of vision and progress. Why don’t you sell out while the going’s good? You’ll never get a better offer. It’s the age of the machine, and the factory, and the vested interests. We small traders are ancient history, Mr. Fezziwig.”

Fezziwig: “It’s not just for money alone that one spends a lifetime building up a business, Mr. Jorkin…. It’s to preserve a way of life that one knew and loved. No, I can’t see my way to selling out to the new vested interests, Mr. Jorkin. I’ll have to be loyal to the old ways and die out with them if needs must.”

Scrooge: “I think I know what Mr. Fezziwig means, sir.”

Jorkin: “Oh, you hate progress and money, too, do you?”

Scrooge: “I don't hate them, sir, but perhaps the machines aren’t such a good thing for mankind, after all.”

Memorable scene in "A Christmas Carol"