Instant Runoff Simulations for Choosing the Cambridge Mayor

In Cambridge, the Mayor is the Chair of the City Council and of the School Committee. This is not a popularly elected mayor, but over the years some have suggested that it should be. Often missing from the conversation is the question of how such a popular election would take place in the context of a Plan E Charter, proportional representation elections for City Council and School Committee, and a city manager form of government.

One suggestion that has been made is that without changing the Charter, the City Council could factor into their decision what the actual City Council ballots might have to say regarding the "popular choice" for who should be chosen as mayor. This is only a simulation and must be understood with the caveat that voters might vote differently if they knew that their City Council vote might also be used to elect the mayor. That said, here's what the ballots have to say for the 1997 through 2011 City Council elections and what actually happened in the City Council vote for mayor for each of these mayoral elections.

1997 Election Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 -
Galluccio, Anthony D. 2738 2793 3299 3582 4136 4347 4701 6671 0 DEFEATED -- 8th round
Duehay, Francis 2118 2440 2548 2739 2851 3827 6037 6759 6759 ELECTED -- 8th round
Triantafillou, Katherine 2022 2241 2331 2679 2780 3596 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 6th round
Sullivan, Michael A. 1833 1862 2359 2676 3593 3733 3984 0 0 DEFEATED -- 7th round
Toomey, Timothy J., Jr. 1816 1835 2005 2156 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 4th round
Born, Kathleen 1712 1947 2024 2236 2342 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 5th round
Reeves, Kenneth E. 1674 1771 1859 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 3rd round
Russell, Sheila 1618 1664 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 2nd round
Davis, Henrietta 1084 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 1st round
EXHAUST 0 62 190 547 913 1112 1893 3185 9856 -
Total 16615 16615 16615 16615 16615 16615 16615 16615 16615 -

Actual result: On January 26, 1998 on the 3rd Ballot, Francis Duehay was elected as mayor for the 1998-1999 City Council term.
Note: The three most popular Instant Runoff candidates were Francis Duehay, Anthony Galluccio, and Michael Sullivan. The most popular candidate was elected as mayor.

1999 Election Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 -
Galluccio, Anthony D. 3540 4072 4192 4641 4996 5171 6685 7195 8857 ELECTED -- 9th round
Decker, Marjorie C. 2193 2262 2570 2655 3054 3765 4072 0 0 DEFEATED -- 7th round
Born, Kathleen 2187 2249 2970 3072 3395 4343 4812 6810 0 DEFEATED -- 8th round
Braude, Jim 1976 2021 2301 2355 2545 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 5th round
Reeves, Kenneth E. 1825 1868 2022 2139 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 4th round
Davis, Henrietta 1796 1832 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 2nd round
Toomey, Timothy J., Jr. 1776 1889 1923 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 3rd round
Sullivan, Michael A. 1610 1934 1999 2764 3147 3295 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 6th round
Maher, David 1343 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 1st round
EXHAUST 0 119 269 620 1109 1672 2677 4241 9389 -
TOTAL 18246 18246 18246 18246 18246 18246 18246 18246 18246 -

Actual result: In the wee hours of February 15, 2000 on the 5th Ballot, Anthony Galluccio was elected as mayor for the 2000-2001 City Council term.
Note: The three most popular Instant Runoff candidates were Anthony Galluccio, Kathleen Born, and Marjorie Decker. The most popular candidate was elected as mayor.

2001 Election Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 -
Galluccio, Anthony D. 3477 3851 4042 4478 4836 6241 6654 7415 8402 ELECTED -- 9th round
Davis, Henrietta 2174 2229 2346 2435 3005 3271 4380 6232 0 DEFEATED -- 8th round
Murphy, Brian 2172 2241 2303 2331 2713 2838 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 6th round
Decker, Marjorie C. 1845 1914 2067 2173 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 4th round
Simmons, Denise 1762 1814 2296 2369 2836 2995 3812 0 0 DEFEATED -- 7th round
Toomey, Timothy J., Jr. 1485 1578 1640 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 3rd round
Sullivan, Michael A. 1420 1703 1828 2459 2611 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 5th round
Reeves, Kenneth E. 1300 1345 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 2nd round
Maher, David P. 1167 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 1st round
EXHAUST 0 127 280 557 801 1457 1956 3155 8400 -
TOTAL 16802 16802 16802 16802 16802 16802 16802 16802 16802 -

Actual result: On January 7, 2002 on the 1st Ballot, Michael Sullivan was elected as mayor for the 2002-2003 City Council term.
Note: The three most popular Instant Runoff candidates were Anthony Galluccio, Henrietta Davis, and Denise Simmons. The 5th most popular candidate was elected as mayor.

2003 Election Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 -
Galluccio, Anthony D. 3500 3937 4023 4570 5024 5331 5951 8008 9528 ELECTED -- 9th round
Davis, Henrietta 2786 2859 3204 3326 3712 4795 6137 6852 0 DEFEATED -- 8th round
Murphy, Brian 2114 2318 2488 2544 2716 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 5th round
Decker, Marjorie C. 1961 2033 2398 2495 2931 3475 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 6th round
Sullivan, Michael A. 1913 2218 2320 3015 3396 3703 4039 0 0 DEFEATED -- 7th round
Reeves, Kenneth E. 1828 1897 2269 2371 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 4th round
Toomey, Timothy J., Jr. 1817 1929 1986 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 3rd round
Simmons, Denise 1683 1729 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 2nd round
Maher, David P. 1452 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 1st round
EXHAUST 0 134 366 733 1275 1750 2927 4194 9526 -
TOTAL 19054 19054 19054 19054 19054 19054 19054 19054 19054 -

Actual result: On January 5, 2004 on the 1st Ballot, Michael Sullivan was elected as mayor for the 2004-2005 City Council term.
Note: The three most popular Instant Runoff candidates were Anthony Galluccio, Henrietta Davis, and Michael Sullivan. The 3rd most popular candidate was elected as mayor.

2005 Election Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 -
Galluccio, Anthony D. 2437 2598 2994 3136 3383 3800 5171 5942 0 DEFEATED -- 8th round
Decker, Marjorie C. 1823 1962 2054 2381 2689 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 5th round
Davis, Henrietta 1804 1911 1978 2461 2936 3821 4229 6006 7864 ELECTED -- 9th round
Sullivan, Michael A. 1777 1929 2532 2689 2865 3113 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 6th round
Kelley, Craig A. 1665 1696 1724 1869 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 4th round
Simmons, Denise 1621 2174 2262 2517 2794 3460 3853 0 0 DEFEATED -- 7th round
Murphy, Brian 1590 1662 1700 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 3rd round
Toomey, Timothy J., Jr. 1577 1629 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 2nd round
Reeves, Kenneth E. 1433 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 1st round
EXHAUST 0 166 483 674 1060 1533 2474 3779 7863 -
TOTAL 15727 15727 15727 15727 15727 15727 15727 15727 15727 -

Actual result: On January 2, 2006 on the 1st Ballot, Kenneth E. Reeves was elected as mayor for the 2006-2007 City Council term.
Note: The three most popular Instant Runoff candidates were Henrietta Davis, Anthony Galluccio, and Denise Simmons. The least popular candidate was elected as mayor.

2007 Election Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 -
Toomey, Timothy J., Jr. 1829 1919 2010 2145 2244 3018 3561 3939 0 DEFEATED -- 8th round
Davis, Henrietta 1811 2062 2313 2818 3435 3795 4443 5903 6645 ELECTED -- 9th round
Maher, David P. 1672 1720 1886 2020 2200 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 5th round
Reeves, Kenneth E. 1480 1764 1838 2048 2249 2452 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 6th round
Murphy, Brian 1343 1430 1633 1853 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 4th round
Seidel, Sam 1314 1410 1687 1879 2283 2510 2814 0 0 DEFEATED -- 7th round
Kelley, Craig A. 1308 1380 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 2nd round
Decker, Marjorie C. 1276 1468 1609 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 3rd round
Simmons, E. Denise 1256 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 1st round
EXHAUST 0 136 313 526 878 1514 2471 3447 6644 -
TOTAL 13289 13289 13289 13289 13289 13289 13289 13289 13289 -

Actual result: On January 14, 2008 on the 2nd Ballot, Denise Simmons was elected as mayor for the 2008-2009 City Council term.
Note: The three most popular Instant Runoff candidates were Henrietta Davis, Tim Toomey, and Sam Seidel. The least popular candidate was elected as mayor.

2009 Election Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 -
Davis, Henrietta 2343 2601 3010 3431 3677 4049 4846 5589 7678 ELECTED -- 9th round
Toomey, Jr., Timothy J. 2199 2284 2355 2478 2645 3330 3648 0 0 DEFEATED -- 7th round
Simmons, E. Denise 2191 2318 2563 2912 3698 3949 4460 5158 0 DEFEATED -- 8th round
Maher, David P. 1667 1749 1873 2017 2121 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 5th round
Kelley, Craig A. 1623 1759 1952 2083 2154 2384 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 6th round
Reeves, Kenneth E. 1450 1501 1580 1760 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 4th round
Decker, Marjorie C. 1438 1476 1531 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 3rd round
Seidel, Sam 1238 1373 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 2nd round
Cheung, Leland 1205 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 1st round
EXHAUST 0 293 490 673 1059 1642 2400 4607 7676 -
TOTAL 15354 15354 15354 15354 15354 15354 15354 15354 15354 -

Actual result: On February 22, 2010 on the 6th Ballot, David Maher was elected as mayor for the 2010-2011 City Council term.
Note: The three most popular Instant Runoff candidates were Henrietta Davis, Denise Simmons, and Tim Toomey. The 5th most popular candidate was elected as mayor.

2011 Election Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 -
Cheung, Leland 2591 2719 3119 3437 4151 4594 5632 6827 7695 ELECTED -- 9th round
Maher, David P. 1951 2035 2193 2382 2480 3081 3554 0 0 DEFEATED -- 7th round
Toomey, Jr., Timothy J. 1924 2023 2094 2193 2275 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 5th round
Davis, Henrietta 1839 1914 2104 2461 2800 2984 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 6th round
Simmons, E. Denise 1597 2095 2200 2513 2702 3001 3812 4586 0 DEFEATED -- 8th round
vanBeuzekom, Minka Y. 1459 1492 1728 1825 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 4th round
Kelley, Craig A. 1416 1451 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 2nd round
Decker, Marjorie C. 1356 1469 1588 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 3rd round
Reeves, Kenneth E. 1255 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEFEATED -- 1st round
EXHAUST 0 190 362 577 980 1728 2390 3975 7693 -
TOTAL 15388 15388 15388 15388 15388 15388 15388 15388 15388 -

Actual result: Inauguration Day is Monday, January 2, 2012. The 1st Ballot for mayor will be cast at the Inaugural Meeting.
Note: The three most popular Instant Runoff candidates were Leland Cheung, Denise Simmons, and David Maher.

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